Mahrizal 1, L. Lanier Nalley2,*, Bruce L. Dixon3 and Jennie S. Popp4
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12065/abstract
Issue
Keywords:
Q01; Q15; Q32; Cocoa; Optimal phased replacement rate; Net present value
This study solves for the optimum replacement rate (ORR) and
initial replacement year (IRY) of cocoa trees (Theobroma cacao) in Ghana to maximize net present value and
achieve steady state by employing a phased replanting approach. The annual ORR
is 5%–7% across the three production systems studied: Low Input, Landrace
Cocoa, High Input, No Shade Amazon Cocoa, and High Input, Medium Shade Cocoa.
The optimal IRY ranges from year 5 to year 9 as a function of cocoa prices,
fertilizer prices, labor prices, and percentage yield loss due to disease
outbreaks. Deterministic results project economic gains that exceed currently
practiced replacement approaches by 5.57%–14.67% across production systems with
reduced, annual income volatility. The method applied in this study can be used
to increase cocoa yields and stabilize income over time, and facilitate
substantial quality of life improvements for many subsistence cocoa farmers in
Ghana and around the world.
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